Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Election 2008: Psychotic Guesses and Prognostication Dung

Have you had trouble sleeping the last few nights? Caught yourself tip-toeing out of bed to check the 'Net at 1:30 a.m. to see if some sort of "October Surprise" has snuck up on us in the middle of the night? Have blogpostings with titles like "New Mexico Possible Democratic Sweep" made you alternatively giddy and fearful, causing you to firmly place your hands on your workdesk like your trying to keep the dishes from falling off the table during an earthquake? Do you find yourself muttering "don't breathe, because this wonderful situation certainly can't last"? in a mantra-like manner?

Moreover, are you supposed to be grading tons of papers this morning, and find that you can't because you instead want to check Google Maps to see where Dixville Notch, New Hampshire is exactly, how far it is from a "Red State" and are seriously considering if the 23 voters of Dixville Notch might have a coattail effect on Harry Teague's race in NM-2 over 2,300 miles away?

If your answer to any of the above questions is "yes", I hardly need to tell you that you have a problem handling good news. You are a distrustful person. You, quite obviously, have experienced life as a "liberal" in the early years of the 21 Century.

If you answered yes to all of the above, try to get at least one glance at the beautiful New Mexico Fall morning between the 3.73 million refreshes, pageviews and political disaster scenarios you will inevitably perform over the next 14 hours or so. And help me grade some of these papers while I hammer out some utterly unscientific guesses as to who will win what 'round these parts.

  • Nationally, Obama 329 EV to McCain's 209. Being from the South, I have no faith in Georgia going Blue, and Florida is a liberal's "Chinatown". As in "Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
  • Same with Missouri. I'd love to see it, but even my Mom's Obama vote doesn't make it happen.
  • As for the nationwide popular vote, who gives a rat's ass about that? Obviously the Supreme Court doesn't, so why should I?

U.S. Senate:
  • I spent the mid-80s stalling my adulthood and professional life by getting a Master's Degree in Political Science, and taking all these classes in things like "Comparative Voting and Party Politics". We students quickly learned that sprinking the word "coattails" liberally through our essays was key to making the grade with our profs. It helped me get the coveted (and eventually useless) degree, but it also left me with an intellectual limp. Combined with the Reagan Presidency, my "coattails" indoctrination makes me obsess about them in all elections.
  • Hence, my interpretation of New Mexico races suffer from a mad this-is-like-Reagan-1980 delusion, with coattails not only dragging the ground but plowing Republicans like sandy loam. We'll see.
  • Udall 59% Pearce 41%
U.S. House:
  • Given the Obamamania, for most of us the only thing that could dent our happiness would be a Darren White win amid the Blue Wave. Heinrich gets maximum coattail effect, especially in reduced numbers of R's going to the polls.
  • Heinrich 53%, White 47%
  • The Teague/Tinsley race is the real nail-biter here. Tinsley certainly comes across in his commercials as one scary MoFo, reminding me so much of Texas that I can taste the grit and weak-ass jalapenos in my chimichanga.
  • Tinsley 51%, Teague 49% Yes I'm being pessimistic here, but living 25 years in Texas will do that to you.
  • In other scores: Lujan 61%, people not named Lujan 39%
State Races:
  • Call me lazy, but the only State gig that interest me much is the Snyder/Eichenberg battle up in the NE Heights. Maybe that's because I've been doing a bit of bikeriding through those neighborhoods and the sight of all those Eichenberg signs has me thinking the "Frights" isn't as bad as I remember it when I lived at the Corner of Wyoming/Comanche fifteen years ago.
  • Still the Frights is bad: Snyder 52%, Eichenberg 48%
  • Please (insert Deity here) tell me why we still elect Judges in this State! Is the whole enterprise just some sort of subtle voter intimidation, attempting (successfully) to make voters feel like idiots when going to the polls in the belief that if we feel like idiots we'll stop showing up to vote altogether?
AMAFCA (Albuquerque Metropolitan Arroyo and Flood Control Authority):
  • See "Judges" above
  • By the way, I want it on the record that I am against flooding. And that I want flooding controlled. I'm not much on the whole "authority" thing, but I guess it's nice to have someone in "authority" regarding the control of flooding.
  • Moreover, Jacksonian Democracy is stupid.
Bernalillo County Commission #2:
  • Art de la Cruz 104%, Cecilla M. C. De Baca -4%
  • Ms. De Baca, or Ms. C. De Baca, or perhaps simply MC De Baca (noted triphop DJ) not only wasn't in the "Voter's Guide" as running for this office, I have no record that such a person even exists. I saw no yard signs, no nothing. Of course, now that I think about it, I've only seen one Art de la Cruz sign since the Democratic Primary.
  • But de la Cruz is the Democrat so he wins in the South Valley with over 100% of the vote. The party machine down here is trying to refine the process, and avoid the embarrassment of having its candidates get more than 100% of the vote, but there are still some machination details to tweak.
Constitutional Amendments:
  • It's common for folks to think that the "modern" day is refined and smart, and that only in the past were people and their constitutional amendment ballot measures stupid. Well, I'm here to tell you the stupid lives on when it comes to New Mexico constitutional amendment proposals.
  • Whose idea was it to have two separate school board election amendments, one stupid one allowing for mail-in ballots and the other smart one allowing for these elections to take place at the same time as partisan elections? And what's with this "allow APS to have nine board members thing, but let's not call it APS and have some silly population requirement doo-dad instead" tacked on to the stupid mail-in ballot proposal?
  • One almost gets the impression the whole thing is some sly ruse to get us to drag down the smart proposal with the stupid one.
  • Hmmm..maybe somebody's not being so stupid after all...
  • Meanwhile, I have no idea on whether these will pass, but I'll flip a coin and say the smart one passes and the stupid one fails, in part because non-ABQ citizens can certainly figure out the silly population requirement is code for "Albuquerque" and we all know what folks in Jal and Lordsburg think of "Albuquerque".
  • In other words: Dumb Constitutional Amendment #1 Does Not Pass; Smart Constitutional Amendment #4: Passes.
Bond Questions/Issues:
  • To close this far-too-long post, I think I'll indulge in a little fantasy. Being the boring person I am, this fantasy will involve the 2008 Election Bond Issues. I see, in my mind's eye, a populace tired of driving, tired of wildly fluctuating gasoline prices, bad drivers and people not using their turn signals. I see low mpg vehicles being "retired", and pickup trucks stuck like old farm implements into front yards, their beds used as large gladiola planters. I see Isleta Boulevard as the first of what becomes a city-wide network of vehicle roads converted to bike/pedestrian paths, the former rock/glass/automotive parts "bike path" now paved with the smoothest blacktop this side of Talladega. I see cars forced off the major roads into unmaintained, segregated "automotive areas" that resemble the smoking area glass cages at U.S. airports.
  • In other words, I see all the Bond issues passing, and Senior Citizens, Parks, Libraries and Schools all getting their money...while the Roads Question goes down to defeat 93% to 7%.
A guy, even a slightly pessimistic one on what looks to be a gloriously liberal day, can dream can't he? Happy voting day, everybody.


Anonymous said...

You don't seriously think of yourself as "slightly pessimistic" do you?

You're one of the most dour, grumpy, balloons-are-landing-hide-indoors-because-god-forbid-I-speak-to-someone, pessimistic bloggers in Albuquerque. I say this not to be mean but because I suspect you'll find it amusing.

Is there anything in life you can't complain about?

To quote the Dude "Everything's a fucking travesty with you man!"

jscotkey said...

I'm liking tonight so far. Does that count? And sunsets. And long walks on the beach. Actually I don't really care for the beach. Sand in the shoes, between the toes...nah, scratch the whole beach thing.

Sunsets are nice. So is Obama up early in Indiana.

michelle meaders said...

Aren't you glad you were wrong about some of the races?

And by the way, Cecilla M. C. De Baca is in the LWV voter guide under Bernalillo County Commission District 2 -- you just have to turn the page.

David Alire Garcia has a good article on the NM Independent about how the Journal's endorsements are really those of T. H. Lang, the owner.