Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Election 2006: A Few Supremely Uneducated Guesses

Updated 6:42 AM 11/8/06: What time did I get to bed? How many hours of sleep did I get? Answers: 2:00 and 4. There was a day back in the day where that would be no big deal. That day passed some years ago. I stayed up past the point where Torrance County and a shrinking lead in Bernco at the end put Heather on top, and long enough to look at Montana Senate votes trickle in with beyond Bernco slowness.

But boy was it fun...my wife called me an election nerd last night. Guilty. Still, even as the recounts begin I'm considering a six-month hiatus on anything political. Anything. Expect to see Burque babble entries strictly about goats, foreign films and baseball until at least Spring Break. Unless that Burns guy or Allen guy win through some recount brouhaha...

Meanwhile...I've got a chance to have been right on every pick except Balderas, even the overall House/Senate ones. There's one I wish I hadn't been quite so right about, but let's see how that plays out today...

Happy Election Day Everybody

After a good night's sleep and an abbreviated perusal of NM weather details and such, here's a bunch of complete seat-of-the-pants guesses. Interesting numbers from JoeMonahan this morning concerning lower turnout than mid-term 2002. His figures combined with my own suspicions about human laziness in general and voter enthusiasm for Election 2006 in particular lead me to suppress Democratic numbers by a couple of percentage points across the board. Outside ABQ there wasn't much to get excited about here, and in the ABQ area if Patsy couldn't get you to the polls you just might not be going at all.

And low turnout might well be the political death of Patsy. Of course there are a ton of other factors at work, including how voters respond to this year's ultra-retro paper ballot. More straight-party voting? If so, does that matter? Many, many possibilities to consider as we meander through an Election work day. As a schoolteacher, I get the added bonus of having my workplace be a voting site. To me, midterm elections mean awful parking and the library is closed.

Keep in mind: 1. The following numbers are for entertainment purposes only; 2. anybody using these numbers to place actual wagers has a rather pronounced gambling problem and needs to call the Gambler's Anonymous Hotline at (505) 260-7272; 3. Meanwhile, I'll take Balderas plus the six and a two-play Lyons/Lewis teaser...anybody?

The Only Race That Matters in the Whole World:
Wilson 51.5
Madrid 48.5

Update 10:43 PM: Oh, did I say Wilson 51.5%? I meant to say.....nah, I'm sticking with the Wilson pick until Heather's cold, politically distant fingers are removed from the seat....

Bingaman 64
McCulloch 36

Richardson 62
Guy who isn't Richardson 38

Secretary of State:
Herrera 52
Perea 48

State Auditor (this guess goes beyond guess to simply finding two numbers that add to 100):
Garcia 54
Balderas 46

State Treasurer:
Lewis 56
Padilla 44

Attorney General:
King 59
Bibb 41

Land Commissioner:
Lyons 54
Baca 46

Updated 3:29 PM: Oh..I forgot to include a few things.

ABQ Quality of Life:
Yes: 41
No: 59 (makes me a little sad, but there's probably a better way to structure/campaign for something like this, at least I hope there is)

U.S. House:
Republicans: 205
Democrats: 230 (I'm much more optimistic nationally than I am in NM-1)

U.S. Senate:
Republicans: 49
Democrats: 51 (okay, maybe I'm flooding with an optimism bordering on blind hope...but I say McCaskill in MO & Webb in VA both win, putting the Senate in a Lieberman-free zone past 50-50).

"See" some of you via the one-way mirror that is television tonight...try not to laugh too hard.

1 comment:

LP said...


Teasers are evil!